Geopolitical Forecasting How the U.S. Government Can Learn to See the Future

In 1973, then-Secretary of State and National Security Adviser Henry Kissinger argued that policymaking could be reduced to a process of “making complicated bets about the future,” noting that it would be helpful if he could be supplied with “estimates of the relevant betting odds.”

Despite Kissinger’s plea for betting odds, forecasting efforts in the government today remain underdeveloped. The early failure to anticipate and prepare for the coronavirus, despite indicators that a pandemic was likely, has cost hundreds of thousands of American lives. Traditionally, the U.S. government relies on qualitative expert analysis, scenario-planning exercises and war games to assess the world. U.S. intelligence analysts play a critical role in informing policy decisions and help to keep the country and the world safe. Even in the best case, however, expert judgments often have limits because of constraints on the ability of any one individual to integrate information.

Read more in Lawfare >>