Conflict, Europe, Power & Security, Russia A prolonged ceasefire may be the likely endgame in Ukraine

War aims are shifting on both sides of Russia’s barbaric war against Ukraine, reflecting shifting realities on the battlefield. Unless one side can dominate the ongoing battle for the Donbas, those shifts portend a protracted war. With little prospect of a negotiated final settlement, the endgame may be a prolonged ceasefire or armistice rather than a durable end to the war. This might include a new military line of contact wherever the fighting stops, with final territorial settlements postponed until later. However this war ends, new forms of Western support will be needed to prevent peace from unraveling and to ensure that Ukraine retains the military capacity to defend itself if Russia goes back on the offensive.

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