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The U.S. intelligence community combines a global surveillance network with cutting-edge analytic techniques to produce some of the most sophisticated predictions possible about future threats to the United States, its citizens, and the world. How does the American intelligence community use the tools at its disposal to make geopolitical forecasts? What new methods and technologies might help predict the future more accurately? And what does the U.S. intelligence community view as the most important global trends in the coming decades?
Join Perry World House for this discussion on the U.S. intelligence community and the future of the geopolitical forecasting with Morgan Muir, U.S. Deputy Director of National Intelligence for Mission Integration. This event is part of our 2021 Global Order Colloquium on “How to See the Future.” Please note that this event will be virtual only; details of how to take part can be found in your order confirmation email.
Morgan Muir is the U.S. Deputy Director of National Intelligence for Mission Integration. He has served in a variety of senior executive intelligence and policy roles. His most recent assignments include working overseas with a foreign partner serving as the Assistant Director of CIA for Near East Affairs. Mr. Muir previously worked for three years in the Directorate of Analysis front office, rising to be the Deputy Director of Analysis. As Deputy Director for Analytic Programs, he focused on the quality of analytic products, a portfolio that touched many aspects of the Directorate's activities. As Deputy Director for Strategic Programs, he guided a broad range of enduring initiatives, including talent management, global agility, and information technology. Muir has also previously served as Deputy Director of the CIA's Counterterrorism Center (CTC) and, prior to that, head of its analytic arm, the Office of Terrorism Analysis. In CTC, he led officers at the the heart of the fight against Al-Qaida and its allies, helping inform and shape US policy and operations. Muir has extensive experience in multiple disciplines of all-source analysis and in support to a wide variety of intelligence customers. He moved to CTC from the Office of Russian and European Analysis, where he was Deputy Director, having spent the previous four years as the daily intelligence briefer for President George W. Bush. Mr. Muir's other assignments include Issue Manager for the Balkans and Central Europe; Deputy of the DCI's interagency Balkans Task Force; NSC Director for Southeast European Affairs; and Intelligence Advisor to Assistant Secretary for European and Canadian Affairs Richard Holbrooke. He has also had tours worldwide.
Michael C. Horowitz is Director of Perry World House and Richard Perry Professor at the University of Pennsylvania. He is the author of The Diffusion of Military Power: Causes and Consequences for International Politics, and the co-author of Why Leaders Fight. He won the Karl Deutsch Award given by the International Studies Association for early career contributions to the fields of international relations and peace research. He has published in a wide array of peer reviewed journals and popular outlets. His research interests include the intersection of emerging technologies such as artificial intelligence and robotics with global politics, military innovation, the role of leaders in international politics, and geopolitical forecasting methodology. Professor Horowitz previously worked for the Office of the Undersecretary of Defense for Policy in the Department of Defense. He is a senior fellow for defense technology and innovation at the Council on Foreign Relations. Professor Horowitz received his Ph.D. in Government from Harvard University and his B.A. in political science from Emory University.