Geopolitical Forecasting, International Trade & Finance, Power & Security, Public Health 2021 Global Order Colloquium Thought Pieces

The scholars and policy practitioners who attended Perry World House's 2021 Global Order Colloquium have produced a series of thought pieces exploring how better forecasting methods could be applied across three global policy areas.

The Global Economy

How Much Will Vaccine Equity Cost? by Agathe Demarais, based on a white paper published by the Economist Intelligence Unit

The Pandemic Debt and the Future of the Global Economy by Ana Beatriz Galvão

How Long Can Markets Ignore Political Risks? by Mark Rosenberg

Inferring Economic Risk from Options Contracts and Public Prediction Markets by Eric Zitzewitz

Global Health

New Thinking for a New Dawn by Harvey Rubin

How to See the Future: Forecasting and Global Public Health by Ridhwaan Suliman

What Are The Odds Of A New Major Global Health Emergency Over The Next 5 Years? by Caroline Wagner

National Security

Geopolitical Forecasting and Actionable Intelligence by Ian S. Lustick (published in Survival)

War with China: Five Scenarios by Stacie L. Pettyjohn (published in Survival)

National Security and Climate Change: The Attention It Deserves? by Erin Sikorsky (published in Survival)

Connecting Intelligence and Policy by Gregory F. Treverton (published in Survival)