Asia-Pacific, Power & Security Forging a Path Towards Stability and Cohesion in Foreign Policy: Taiwan’s Future Foreign Policy Direction

Taiwan successfully completed another democratic election on January 13, 2024. The ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) achieved an unprecedented victory, securing its third consecutive term in office and marking a historic moment in Taiwan’s democratization –the first instance of a single party winning three consecutive presidential terms through democratic elections.  

Leading up to the election, China engaged in continuous cognitive warfare and interference in Taiwan’s election. Following the election, China escalated its gray zone warfare against Taiwan in the Taiwan Strait, further altering the status quo and dividing the Taiwanese society. Nonetheless, despite the upcoming transition of power in May and the inauguration of President-elect Lai Ching-te, it is believed that the new DPP government’s foreign, cross-strait, and national security policies will largely align with Lai’s campaign promises and those of outgoing President Tsai Ing-wen. 

Maintaining Stable and Consistent Foreign Policy under the Lai Administration 

Firstly, Lai’s post-election actions are in line with his campaign promises. President-elect Lai emphasized numerous times that he would continue to uphold President Tsai’s steady foreign and cross-strait policies. In his article for the Wall Street Journal, titled “My Plan to Preserve Peace in the Taiwan Strait,” Lai officially declared to the international community his commitment to strengthening Taiwan's national resilience. He reiterated his future policy of maintaining peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait by enhancing Taiwan’s defense deterrence capabilities, expanding international cooperation, strengthening economic security, and maintaining stable and consistent cross-strait relations.  

President-elect Lai has emphasized that maintaining peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait would be a top priority of his presidency. He pledged to “adhere to the constitutional system of the Republic of China, maintain the status quo with dignity and equality, and based on the principles of equality and dignity, replace containment with communication and confrontation with dialogue, confidently engage in exchanges and cooperation with China, enhance the well-being of people on both sides of the strait, and achieve the goal of peace and prosperity.” 

Secondly, amid escalating threats from China and increased risk of conflict, it is believed that the Lai government will prioritize strengthening national defense capabilities over seeking short-term confrontation. Taiwan is currently at a crucial developmental crossroads, where it is urgent to enhance Taiwan's national resilience to better defend against potential Chinese aggression. China's rapid military buildup, including its defense budget increasing by over 7 percent this year alone, has raised concerns in the international community. This has prompted neighboring countries, including Japan, Taiwan, and the Philippines, to increase their defense investments to mitigate risks. 

Since President Tsai took office in 2016, the DPP government has initiated defense reforms in Taiwan, including systematic increases in defense budgets and launching indigenous defense projects, such as domestically produced aircraft, ships, submarines, and strengthening the defense industry. The DPP government has also promoted civilian defense mobilization and reformed the conscription system, including restoring one-year service and enhancing modernized training content. Additionally, the DPP government has strengthened asymmetric warfare capabilities by procuring necessary weaponry from the United States. Faced with China’s ongoing military buildup and unilateral actions altering the existing status quo in regions such as the East China Sea, South China Sea, and Taiwan Strait, the DPP government remains highly vigilant. 

It is believed that Lai will continue the Tsai government's policies and expedite preparations to enhance defense resilience. It is observed that seeking short-term confrontation will not be the direction of the DPP’s cross-strait relations. 

Thirdly, from an economic perspective, it is also believed the Lai government will strive to bolster Taiwan’s economy and create a better investment environment, with stability in the Taiwan Strait being a necessary condition to maintain economic momentum. 

Taiwan is experiencing steady economic growth not witnessed in 20 years, driven not only by Taiwan’s advanced semiconductor industry but also by the social resilience demonstrated during the COVID-19 pandemic, which has increased global investor confidence in Taiwan. President Tsai’s eight years in office have also seen continuous strengthening of investment and trade with countries outside of China, diversifying risks from relying solely on the Chinese market. 

Since 2016, the DPP has advocated the New Southbound Policy, encouraging Taiwanese investment in Southeast Asia. Since 2022, the amount of Taiwanese investment in Southeast Asian countries has officially exceeded that in China. Over the past eight years, Taiwan’s exports to China have continued to decrease. Compared to before 2016 when the Kuomintang (KMT) government was in power, Taiwan's exports to China accounted for 45 percent of its total exports. Now, this proportion has decreased to 35 percent. Conversely, Taiwan’s exports to Europe have increased by nearly 50 percent, to Southeast Asia by nearly 60 percent, to Japan by nearly 70 percent, and to the United States by more than 120 percent, all compared to 2016. 

Additionally, over the past eight years, the DPP government has sought to deepen economic and trade cooperation with like-minded countries, actively solving trade barriers with neighboring countries, including issues such as food imports from Fukushima, Japan, and pork imports from the United States. Taiwan and the United States have successfully signed the first stage of the 21st Century US-Taiwan Trade Initiative. It is observed that the upcoming Lai government will continue to accelerate the reduction of Taiwan’s dependence on the Chinese market, creating a better investment environment for global investors and attracting more Taiwanese businesses to invest at home. To achieve this goal, peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait, as well as continued enhancement of defense deterrence capabilities, will be key. It is also believed that the Lai government will continue to play a responsible role in the region, aiming to maintain peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait. 

Fourthly, democratic Taiwan has become the de facto recognized sovereign status by the Taiwanese people. Prior to Taiwan’s democratization, there were various opinions among the Taiwanese people on how to overthrow the authoritarian regime of the KMT. However, after Taiwan’s democratization, Taiwanese people could determine the president, parliament, county and city mayors, and national policies through democratic elections, making Taiwan a new community. 

Before taking office for the first time in 2000, the DPP passed the Resolution on Taiwan's Future, an important political document signaling the party’s entry into the constitutional system of the Republic of China and its pursuit of governance power in 1999. The position revealed in this political document also became the basis for the four commitments proposed by President Tsai Ing-wen in her 2021 National Day address. 

Lai reiterated this position during the campaign. For most Taiwanese people, Taiwan is already a sovereign democracy, which is the status quo. In this sense, the government’s task in Taiwan is to defend and maintain this status quo. 

Fifthly, from an organizational perspective, after eight years of the Tsai administration, the DPP’s foreign and national security teams have gained international trust. Although the DPP is a politically diverse party, there are no significant differences in its foreign and cross-strait policies. In other words, there are no factional or ideological differences within the DPP’s foreign policy and national security circle. On the contrary, the majority of DPP members highly approve of the foreign and national security policies of the past eight years. Therefore, it is observed that the foreign and national security teams under the Lai administration will largely continue the personnel of the Tsai administration. 

Deepening International Cooperation and Substantive Relations with Neighbors 

In recent years, Taiwan has enjoyed a high level of cooperation and understanding with like-minded neighboring countries, particularly with the United States. Taiwan does not advocate prioritizing symbolic issues over substantive cooperation but rather focuses on tangible progress in its foreign relations. 

While there may be differing views between Taiwan and its partners on certain symbolic and substantive issues, there is indeed a need for higher levels of dialogue and better coordination to clarify how each cooperation issue can be better understood by society. 

In the future, the DPP government is expected to seek cooperation on several substantive issues with neighboring countries including the United States, Japan, Australia, the Philippines, and South Korea. These issues include how to address China’s gray zone conflicts, disinformation and cognitive warfare tactics, concrete cooperation on maritime security and regional security affairs, intelligence sharing, and countermeasures against China's legal warfare. 

Currently, Taiwan and the United States have higher levels of cooperation and coordination in addressing China's cognitive warfare, gray zone conflicts, and legal warfare. For example, recent actions by the United States, such as its responses to Chinese interpretations of UN Resolution 2758 and its military presence in the Taiwan Strait and South China Sea, have contributed to Taiwan's efforts in countering China’s gray zone operations and legal warfare. However, communication and coordination with other countries still need to be strengthened. 

In these areas of cooperation, US leadership is crucial. While Taiwan is seeking bilateral cooperation with these countries, US leadership in the region remains key to influencing neighboring allies. However, China's actions to change the status quo extend beyond Taiwan. Recently, China’s military activities in the East Sea and the South China Sea have demonstrated its efforts to change the status quo. Taiwan needs to engage in closer dialogue with Japan, the Philippines, Australia and South Korea, share experiences, and seek deeper cooperation in response to China's gray zone operations. 

Conclusion 

Amid China's increasing ambitions for external expansion, peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait are crucial for Taiwan and all countries in the region. It can be expected that the incoming Lai Ching-te government will continue to maintain a stable and consistent foreign policy. Furthermore, seeking higher levels of substantive cooperation with neighboring partner countries will be the continued direction of the Lai government.