Middle East Perry World House Q&A: Benjamin Netanyahu's Visit to Washington

As Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu arrives in the United States for a three-day visit, Perry World House spoke with Guy Grossman, professor of political science at Penn, about Netanyahu’s Washington itinerary, the state of US-Israel relations, and what each side hopes to accomplish during this visit.

Prime Minister Netanyahu’s visit comes at a complicated time for US-Israel relations. Where does the bilateral relationship currently stand? What are the biggest issues from each side’s perspective?

The relationship between the Israeli government under Netanyahu and the Biden administration has been strained. US President Joe Biden is frustrated with Netanyahu for his lack of commitment to reaching a cease-fire agreement with Hamas as part of a comprehensive deal that involves the release of Israeli hostages held in Gaza and Palestinian prisoners held in Israeli prisons and detention centers. President Biden also feels—and rightly so—that Netanyahu was not sufficiently appreciative, at least in public, of the moral, diplomatic, and military support the White House has given Israel after October 7th, even as this support was unpopular with Biden’s base in an election year. Democrats’ frustration with Netanyahu has deep roots. It goes back to Netanyahu’s attempt to derail President Obama’s Iran deal in 2015 (again, in front of a joint session of Congress), as well as Netanyahu’s interference in past US elections in favor of Republican presidential nominees.

Notwithstanding the complicated personal relations between Biden and Netanyahu, Israel is still considered a key US ally whose strength helps the United States project soft power in the Middle East. For the United States, the biggest issue on the table is signing a cease-fire deal, which would also reduce the likelihood of an all-out war between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon. Politically, a ceasefire deal would also help Kamala Harris’ presidential campaign. Another critical issue for the Biden administration is making at least some progress toward a normalization agreement between Israel and Saudi Arabia. Biden views such an agreement as vital for US security’s interests in the Middle East and part of his legacy. For Netanyahu’s government, the key issues are (a) maintaining USA’s (bi-partisan) military and diplomatic support even in the case the Gaza war drags on, (b) receiving guarantees that the United States will oppose recent efforts to impose sanctions on settlers and settler organizations involved in non-state violence against Palestinians, and (c) demonstrating to the world audience (in particular Iran) that Israel is far from being a pariah state, but instead is still considered a very strong US ally.   

Included in Netanyahu’s DC itinerary are a speech to a joint session of Congress as well as a 1:1 meeting with President Biden. What are Netanyahu’s biggest goals during this visit?

I mentioned some of the geopolitical goals above. However, Netanyahu also has narrower political goals. First, he must demonstrate to the Israeli public that he still has full US support. An Israeli prime minister who loses the support of the White House also loses his job back home. Second, Netanyahu wants to use his visit to sideline parts of the democratic party, primarily its progressive side, knowing that before a general election, the democratic party will not antagonize the pro-Israeli parts of the Democratic party, which is the party of choice for over 70 percent of American Jews. Relatedly, accepting the invitation to speak in a joint session of Congress so close to the US elections and meeting former US President Donald Trump in Florida help the Republican party make the case that it is a stronger supporter of Israel than the Democratic party. Netanyahu has never been shy about signaling that he prefers a Republican president in the White House.    

Are there likely to be any policy changes on either side following this visit?

I would doubt it. Biden cannot credibly threaten to remove military and diplomatic support or condition it in any way so close to the elections. Netanyahu has no domestic incentive to end the Gaza war since a cease-fire is likely to cause his government to fall. In addition, he has no intention of angering Trump, who has good odds of being the president after the November elections. Trump may want the Gaza war to end (at least this is what he says publicly), but not under Biden’s leadership.  This means we will not see Netanyahu signaling an end to the war, and he will be careful with how much praise he has shown Biden for his unwavering support since October 7th. I suspect the strained relationship between Democrats and Netanyahu will not heal after this visit and might even deepen.