Middle East Perry World House Q&A: Developments in Syria and What Lies Ahead

At the end of November, the long-simmering civil war in Syria reignited, with rebel fighters advancing on the Syrian army controlled by President Bashar al-Assad. The rebels quickly gained control of Aleppo, followed closely by Hama, Homs, and, on December 8, the capital city of Damascus. The Assad regime had fallen, and Bashar al-Assad fled to Moscow and one of his longtime allies, Vladimir Putin. Perry World House Visiting Fellow and Professor at the Johns Hopkins University’s School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS) Mara Karlin—a former assistant secretary of defense for strategies, plans, and capabilities—answered some of our questions about what happened in Syria, who the rebels are and what they stand for, and what comes next for Syria.

News broke over the Thanksgiving weekend [November 28 – December 1] that Syria’s second-largest city, Aleppo, had fallen to rebel groups. Who are the key groups and players in the current round of fighting?

Over the last week or so, the relatively frozen conflict in Syria began melting—and in a rather spectacular way— as rebels opposed to the Syrian government have swept across northwest Syria. Disentangling the main actors in this conflict can be a clunky and dizzying affair. Broadly, there are major geopolitical players like Russia, Iran, the United States, and Turkey, and local actors like the Syrian government and its forces led by Bashar al-Assad; Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a U.S.-designated terrorist group that seeks to remake itself; the Syrian National Army, supported by Turkey; and various Kurdish groups. 

Up until Thanksgiving weekend, Assad controlled approximately 70% of Syrian territory and was increasingly being welcomed back into the international community, a normalization effort led by Arab countries around the region.

What precipitated the current crisis? 

In 2011, as uprisings swept the Middle East [also known as the Arab Spring], a wide variety of actors in Syria were similarly inspired to push back against their authoritarian leadership. Assad’s response to their calls for reform was swift and severe. He led a brutal effort—helped over the years by the Russians, Iranians, and Hezbollah—to crack down on all opposition. The war in Syria has shapeshifted since 2011, including the rise (and largely the fall) of ISIS and various tussles with Turkish forces, among many others. Since this conflict hasn’t been in the headlines for awhile, it’s worth recalling that since 2011, more than 500,000 Syrians have been killed and at least 13 million Syrians displaced. 

Recent events, in which HTS, a group previously affiliated with al Qaeda that has pledged a more inclusive approach, has raced across Syria and seized major cities, represented the most precarious period for Assad in more than a decade. They demonstrate that while Assad won his war to stay in power— at a hideous price— his inheritance has ultimately proven to be a flimsy one. The gains are dramatic and were unexpected by many. They demonstrated that Syria’s military is feeble and hollow. Assad was unable to survive this challenge to his rule; it has been a truly astonishing set of events for the ultimate survivor. 

What are the biggest geopolitical concerns raised by this flare-up? What are the potential repercussions for the broader Middle East? 

When the Syrian regime has faced challenges to its rule over the past decade or so, it has turned to various combinations of Moscow, Tehran, and Hezbollah to regain its footing. But all three of those actors are preoccupied right now. Russia is struggling as its war on Ukraine enters its third year while also seeing potentially brighter times ahead with the incoming U.S. administration, given President-elect Trump’s proclaimed desire to end that conflict quickly.

Nevertheless, Russia’s casualties in that war are estimated to be more than 600,000 according to U.S. assessments, and its recent effort to recruit 10,000 North Korean troops illustrates that it will be hard for Russia to devote much support to Damascus at this time. Iran has faced tremendous regional pressure, including multiple direct conventional attacks on its territory, and major degradation of some of its closest partners, namely Hamas and Hezbollah. The latter, in particular, played a critical role in training and supporting Syrian government forces over the years; however, Hezbollah lost most of its senior leadership, a large number of its operators, and much of its infrastructure in a historic set of attacks this fall. Simply put, none of these actors have had the capability or capacity to support Assad over the last week or to prevent his ultimate downfall. 

What has U.S. policy been toward Syria?

In the years following the September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks, the United States hoped that the Assad regime would be helpful in fighting terrorists. Unfortunately, that did not prove to be the case and instead they actually enabled a pipeline of foreign fighters targeting American troops in Iraq. When Assad’s regime faced the threat of ISIS [the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria] taking swaths of Syria (and Iraq), the United States and more than 70 countries formed a coalition to weaken his primary opponent. That was exactly the right approach, of course, but it also enabled his regime to maintain control. The United States has similarly struggled with the geopolitical dynamics in Syria, such as when Russia became heavily involved at various times in the conflict, including using its air force to support Assad, or when Turkey, America’s NATO ally, has attacked U.S. partners in Syria. 

The U.S. military has had a presence in Syria since 2015 or so; currently, there are approximately 900 U.S. troops deployed to Syria. Their mission is focused on weakening ISIS, but that has grown fuzzier, particularly as these troops have faced numerous attacks by Iranian-affiliated militias. Those attacks have slowed down recently, which has enabled U.S. troops to increase operations against ISIS remnants. 

All of these dynamics have made it even more complex for the United States to help find a way to support a different Syria.

What can we expect to see happen next in Syria? 

The next few weeks will be critical for Syria as the opposition led by HTS takes control of Syrian territory and institutions. Revolutions are often colored by tremendous unity over what a panoply of actors do *not* want to see—in this case, Assad’s despotic and despicable rule—but they can grow dicey as these actors begin to envision what they *do* want. We should watch how and in what ways the various actors on and off the Syrian battlefield begin formulating the contours of a new, post-Assad Syria. 

Moving forward, what should we be watching for in Syria? 

While there are many big questions looming for Syria, three are particularly worth examining over the coming weeks. Starting inward, how does HTS operate in the areas that they capture? While HTS has increasingly focused on local issues like governance and security, its Islamist approach could alienate many. Moving to the broader region, what approach does Turkey take to support a new Syria? Ankara surely sees current events as an opportunity to enable some of the more than 3 million Syrian refugees in Turkey to finally return home, but surely it is also concerned that escalating fighting might create new refugees seeking safe haven. Finally, does the incoming Trump administration keep U.S. troops in Syria? During his first term, President Trump sought their redeployment—indeed, then-Secretary of Defense Mattis resigned due to his disagreement over this decision—but it was never implemented. Ultimately, there will need to be a convincing case made to President Trump that having U.S. troops in harm’s way in Syria is imperative for U.S. national security interests.

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Mara Karlin, PhD is a professor at Johns Hopkins University-School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS) and a visiting fellow at the Brookings Institution. She served in national security roles for six U.S. secretaries of defense, advising on strategic planning, defense budgeting, the future of conflict, and regional affairs. Most recently, she served as assistant secretary of defense for strategy, plans, and capabilities, leading the development and implementation of the 2022 National Defense Strategy. She advised the secretary of defense on forces, plans, posture, emerging capabilities, and security cooperation, including historic modernization of U.S. force posture in Asia and AUKUS implementation. Previously, she led DoD’s relations with nearly 150 countries. Karlin was on the defense policy team for the Biden-Harris transition. Karlin wrote two books on military history and defense policy, and is a recipient of the Secretary of Defense Distinguished Public Service Medal.