PWH Undergraduate Essay Prize River Deep, Dams High: China’s Activities in the Mekong River

Author’s Statement

China’s dam construction and hydropower activity in the Mekong River has exacerbated drought in downstream regions, threatening the livelihoods of 60 million people across five Southeast Asian countries. This piece could fit under the Global Shifts theme, as I explore how these dams have aggravated the effects of climate change on the Mekong River, which could displace millions of people who rely on fishing and agriculture for their incomes. The potential environmental repercussions are devastating, with lethal consequences for local biodiversity.

My essay also aligns with the Global Order theme, as China’s technological advancements have turned the Mekong River into a site of great power competition. China has significant control over the downstream flow of the Mekong, and they can use their geographical advantage to restrict or release water to their Southeast Asian neighbors as they wish. China also plans to turn the river into a potential path for military vessels to sail through to the South China Sea, which would “sandwich” the Southeast Asian region between these two bodies of water. The Mekong River is a microcosm of the U.S.-China competition within Asia— both China and the United States have formed water governance partnerships with the Southeast Asian nations, competing with each other for influence in the region. Data-sharing is a contentious issue between all parties involved, and surveillance technology has been deployed to collect accurate information on water levels within the dams. The conflict shows how Southeast Asian countries have been bound to China’s economic investments, resulting in greater leeway for China to develop the Mekong as it wishes— if the U.S. wishes to counteract Chinese influence, it must support its Southeast Asian allies in negotiating for more agency over water governance.

Essay

60 million people depend on the Mekong River for their livelihoods, but their way of life is under threat. Since 2019, much of the Lower Mekong region (stretching across Cambodia, Laos, Thailand, and Vietnam) has been dry. The cause: 11 giant dams constructed in southwest China.[1] The Mekong River, a millennia-old source of sustenance, has become a site of great power competition between China and the United States, with the consequences being most keenly felt by local communities in Southeast Asia. If the United States wishes to strengthen its ties with its Southeast Asian allies while also countering Chinese expansion, it should focus its attention on the emerging conflict in the Mekong.

While climate change has definitely been a major factor towards the recent increase in droughts, China’s dam construction and hydropower activity are greatly exacerbating the problem. In July 2019, the Mekong region experienced its worst drought in over a century; a Thai natural resources expert declared it “the worst ecological disaster in the history of the Mekong region.” Even though a lack of rainfall was the main reason behind the drought, China’s operations in the Jinghong dam were also a major factor. For the purposes of carrying out “grid maintenance,” China “turned off the Mekong tap”[2]— while severe drought afflicted the lower Mekong basin in Southeast Asia, the upper basin in China received high rainfall and snowmelt, all of which was restricted from flowing downstream.[3] During dry seasons, this number increases to 50 percent, and to 70 percent during droughts.[4] China’s 11 mega-dams in the Upper Mekong collectively store as much water as Chesapeake Bay; [5] hence, they have tremendous control over how water flows downstream to its Southeast Asian neighbors.

The ecological consequences of dam-exacerbated droughts have been devastating for people that rely on the river for their incomes, and for local biodiversity. The Mekong produces 20 percent of the world’s freshwater fish catch—[6]it replenishes the Tonle Sap Lake in Cambodia, which is the world’s largest inland fishery and provides up to 70 percent of the country’s total protein intake. During the July 2019 drought, fishing communities around the Tonle Sap Lake reported that their fish catches were 80 to 90 percent lower than usual, an alarming decrease for such a vital source of food security.[7] Youk Sengleng (an NGO fisheries expert on the Tonle Sap) deduced that “many fish died because of the shallow water, hot temperature, and toxic water resulting from lack of oxygen. Around 2.5 million people who depend on the lake’s once abundant fisheries have been abundantly affected.”[8] In Vietnam, the lack of freshwater flow resulted in an unusually high volume of saltwater pushing into the river, killing rice fields in need of irrigation[9] -- some areas have even completely lost all access to fresh water.[10] China’s dams also threaten biodiversity; for instance, Mekong giant catfish — a critically endangered species — can no longer lay their eggs due to fluctuating water levels.[11] Thus, China’s dams adversely affect local communities and ecosystems in the lower Mekong basin, with dire consequences for both humans and the environment.

As Thitinan Pongsudhirak (a professor of political science at Chulalongkorn University) has said,  “it’s very clear that the Chinese are using the dams for political leverage.”[12] China has a natural geographic advantage over the flow of the Mekong, so they could easily use this control to intimidate their Southeast Asian neighbors with the threat of further water blockages. China is already making its military presence in the Mekong known, with monthly gunboat patrols down the river, under the guise of preventing drug trafficking. Elliott Brennan (a research fellow at the Institute for Security and Development Policy) has noted that this gunboat presence serves to “remind neighbors of the influence they can wield and that the hard power, the sharp power they hold is increasing.” Brennan refers to this display of power as part of a “salami-slicing strategy”— along with their increasing control of the South China Sea, China’s coercive influence over the Mekong would “sandwich” mainland Southeast Asia.[13]  China is already planning to make the Mekong wider and deeper,by dredging rocks in Northern Thailand.[14] This would turn the Mekong into a passage for China’s massive cargo ships and military vessels, by providing a path that would stretch from Yunnan province to the South China Sea.[15] Hence, the Mekong issue is not only a humanitarian or environmental issue, but also a potential military threat. If the United States wishes to counter China’s growing expansion into Southeast Asia, the Mekong River is an area which must not be neglected.

On their own, the affected Southeast Asian countries lack a strong bargaining position against China. From 2010 to 2019, the five lower Mekong countries (Laos, Vietnam, Cambodia, Thailand, and Myanmar) received over $75 billion worth of Chinese investments and construction projects, making them extremely vulnerable in the event of Chinese economic making them extremely vulnerable in the event of Chinese economic backlash.[16]  However, grassroots efforts have, for now, fended off further attempts by China to exert its influence over the Mekong. In February 2020, local people and conservation organizations in Thailand successfully pressured the Thai government into halting a Chinese-led project to blast rapids and dredge the riverbed.[17] Two months later, a social media campaign to #StopMekongDam went viral on Twitter, protesting against China’s dam construction— this campaign arose in the midst of the #MilkTeaAlliance, an online pro-democracy movement led by activists in Thailand, Hong Kong, and Taiwan.[18] While national governments in Southeast Asia may be beholden to China’s economic investments, the Mekong’s deteriorating state has become another cause for local activists to resist China’s expanding influence in the region.

The main vehicle of cooperation for the affected Southeast Asian countries is through the Mekong River Commission (MRC). Since its creation in 1995 (upon the foundations of the UN Mekong Committee), the MRC has enabled its member nations— Cambodia, Laos, Thailand, and Vietnam— to work together to manage the Mekong River.[19]  Studies conducted by the MRC are revealing the full extent of potential consequences from increased dam construction, including all the dams which Laos plans to build (with funding from China, a major ally)— if all the planned dams are completed, the amount of sediment reaching the Mekong Delta will decrease by 97 percent, a devastating blow to local ecosystems and economies.[20] The MRC can also take credit for revealing China’s role in aggravating the July 2019 drought— China’s water restrictions only fully came to light in April 2020, after the MRC released a report with the recorded water levels.[21] However, China denied any responsibility for the dire environmental consequences in the lower Mekong basin, dismissing the MRC’s report as “groundless.”[22] Until China and its Southeast Asian members can come to a full agreement on the nature of the Mekong issue, it will be difficult to find solutions for the droughts.

One of the largest contributing factors to the drought issue was the lack of available data on China’s use of the Mekong— the United States needs to back its Southeast Asian allies in pushing for greater transparency. At the time of the July 2019 drought, there were currently no official treaties between China and the lower Mekong countries which facilitated data sharing on the management of Mekong water flows,[23] meaning that the Southeast Asian countries faced restricted water flows with no prior warning. However, under U.S. pressure, China signed a data- sharing agreement with the MRC in October 2020, promising to provide year-round hydrological data.[24] This result shows that with U.S. support, Southeast Asia can make more progress in negotiations with China. As Southeast Asian countries are economically bound to China, it is difficult for them to make explicit demands of their powerful neighbor; the United States’ involvement can help to even out the scales. In March 2021, the ambassadors of Thailand, Vietnam, and Cambodia called upon the United States to support their attempts to mitigate environmental damage in the Mekong, as China’s data “commitments are not being met.”[25] Therefore, the United States should continue to monitor the situation in the Mekong, ensuring that China actually follows through with its commitment to sharing information.

The United States has already formed a partnership with the Southeast Asian nations, but the U.S. needs to devote enough resources to counteract China’s rival initiatives. In September 2020, the Mekong-U.S. Partnership was formed, through which pledged at least $153 million to the five lower Mekong nations, to be used for hydrological data-sharing, disaster management, and cross-border crime prevention.[26] Three months later, the U.S. State Department supported the launch of the Mekong Dam Monitor, which uses cloud-piercing satellites to monitor water levels at 11 upstream dams along the river.[27] These shows of support from the U.S. have clearly been a response to the Lancang-Mekong Cooperation Mechanism (LMC), which was China’s own agreement with the lower Mekong countries, formed in 2015 as a balancing act against the Mekong River Commission. While the LMC was intended to bridge the gap in China-Southeast Asian cooperation, it still heavily advantages China—along with enabling China’s dam construction and military interests in the Mekong, the LMC is linked to the Belt and Road Initiative.[28] Therefore, the United States must show that it can outweigh China’s attempts to sway Southeast Asian nations into sacrificing the Mekong for infrastructure investment— ideally, a strong Mekong-U.S. Partnership could be used as leverage to bring China to the table for water governance negotiations.

The conflict around the Mekong River has become a microcosm for great power competition between China and the United States. In recent years, China has been able to wield its control over the Mekong River, often with very few limitations and repercussions. If the Biden administration wishes to signal its return to Asia, paying more attention to the Mekong issue would be an optimal display of renewed commitment to U.S. allies in Southeast Asia, along with protecting cultural and environmental diversity. Most importantly, the livelihoods of 60 million people hang in the balance— successful water diplomacy is crucial to preserving their way of life.

Endnotes

[1] Jennings, Ralph. China’s Diversion of Upstream Mekong Flows Seen Drying Up Southeast Asia. Voice of America News. January 28, 2021. Accessed April 8, 2021. https://www.voanews.com/east-asia-pacific/chinas-diversion-upstream-mekong-flows-seen-drying-southeast-asia

[2] Fawthrop, Tom. Something Is Very Wrong on the Mekong River. The Diplomat. August 26, 2019. Accessed April 8, 2021. https://thediplomat.com/2019/08/something-is-very-wrong-on-the-mekong-river/ 

[3] Eyler, Brian and Weatherby, Courtney. New Evidence: How China Turned off the Tap on the Mekong River. The Stimson Center. April 13, 2020. https://www.stimson.org/2020/new-evidence-how-china-turned-off-the-mekong-tap/ 

[4] Funaiole, Matthew P. and Hart, Brian. An Upswell of Solidarity: China’s Mekong Dams Face Online Backlash. Center For Strategic & International Studies. April 24, 2020. https://www.csis.org/analysis/upswell-solidarity-chinas-mekong-dams-face-online-backlash 

[5] Eyler, Brian and Weatherby, Courtney. New Evidence: How China Turned off the Tap on the Mekong River. The Stimson Center. April 13, 2020. https://www.stimson.org/2020/new-evidence-how-china-turned-off-the-mekong-tap/

[6] Kijewski, Leonie. China’s dams exacerbated extreme drought in lower Mekong: Study. 25 April, 2020. Accessed April 8, 2021.https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/4/25/chinas-dams-exacerbated-extreme-drought-in-lower-mekong-study 

[7] Eyler, Brian and Weatherby, Courtney. New Evidence: How China Turned off the Tap on the Mekong River. The Stimson Center. April 13, 2020. https://www.stimson.org/2020/new-evidence-how-china-turned-off-the-mekong-tap/ 

[8] Fawthrop, Tom. Something Is Very Wrong on the Mekong River. The Diplomat. August 26, 2019. Accessed April 8, 2021. https://thediplomat.com/2019/08/something-is-very-wrong-on-the-mekong-river/ 

[9] Kijewski, Leonie. China’s dams exacerbated extreme drought in lower Mekong: Study. Al Jazeera News. 25 April, 2020. Accessed April 8, 2021. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/4/25/chinas-dams-exacerbated-extreme-drought-in-lower-mekong-study 

[10] Eyler, Brian and Weatherby, Courtney. New Evidence: How China Turned off the Tap on the Mekong River. The Stimson Center. April 13, 2020. https://www.stimson.org/2020/new-evidence-how-china-turned-off-the-mekong-tap/ 

[11] Sullivan, Michael. China Reshapes The Vital Mekong River To Power Its Expansion. NPR. October 6, 2018. Accessed April 10, 2021. https://www.npr.org/2018/10/06/639280566/china-reshapes-the-vital-mekong-river-to-power-its-expansion 

[12] Jennings, Ralph. China’s Diversion of Upstream Mekong Flows Seen Drying Up Southeast Asia. Voice of America News. January 28, 2021. Accessed April 8, 2021. https://www.voanews.com/east-asia-pacific/chinas-diversion-upstream-mekong-flows-seen-drying-southeast-asia  

[13] Sullivan, Michael. China Reshapes The Vital Mekong River To Power Its Expansion. NPR. October 6, 2018. Accessed April 10, 2021. https://www.npr.org/2018/10/06/639280566/china-reshapes-the-vital-mekong-river-to-power-its-expansion  

[14] AFP. The 97km that frustrate China's mastery of the Mekong. Bangkok Post. January 10, 2020. Accessed April 10, 2021. https://www.bangkokpost.com/world/1832839/the-97kms-that-frustrate-chinas-mastery-of-the-mekong  

[15] Tan, Huileng. China could have choked off the Mekong and aggravated a drought, threatening the lifeline of millions in Asia. April 27, 2020. Accessed April 10, 2021. https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/28/china-choked-off-the-mekong-which-worsened-southeast-asia-drought-study.html

[16] Funaiole, Matthew P. and Hart, Brian. An Upswell of Solidarity: China’s Mekong Dams Face Online Backlash. Center For Strategic & International Studies. April 24, 2020. https://www.csis.org/analysis/upswell-solidarity-chinas-mekong-dams-face-online-backlash

[17] Thepgumpanat, Panarat. Thailand scraps China-led project to blast open Mekong River. Reuters. February 5, 2020. Accessed April 10, 2021. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-thailand-china/thailand-scraps-china-led-project-to-blast-open-mekong-river-idUSKBN1ZZ1T6 

[18] Funaiole, Matthew P. and Hart, Brian. An Upswell of Solidarity: China’s Mekong Dams Face Online Backlash. Center For Strategic & International Studies. April 24, 2020. https://www.csis.org/analysis/upswell-solidarity-chinas-mekong-dams-face-online-backlash

[19]Mekong River Commission. Devex. Accessed April 10, 2020. https://www.devex.com/organizations/mekong-river-commission-mrc-44123

[20]Wangkiat, Paritta. Sharing the Mekong. Bangkok Post. March 29, 2021. Accessed April 10, 2021. https://www.bangkokpost.com/business/2091291/sharing-the-mekong

[21] Kijewski, Leonie. China’s dams exacerbated extreme drought in lower Mekong: Study. Al Jazeera News. 25 April, 2020. Accessed April 8, 2021. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/4/25/chinas-dams-exacerbated-extreme-drought-in-lower-mekong-study

[22] Tan, Huileng. China could have choked off the Mekong and aggravated a drought, threatening the lifeline of millions in Asia. April 27, 2020. Accessed April 10, 2021. https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/28/china-choked-off-the-mekong-which-worsened-southeast-asia-drought-study.html

[23] Citowicki, Philip. China’s Control of the Mekong. The Diplomat. May 8, 2020. Accessed April 10, 2021. https://thediplomat.com/2020/05/chinas-control-of-the-mekong/ 

[24] Strangio, Sebastian. Amid US Criticisms, China Offers Mekong Nations Access to Crucial River Data. The Diplomat. October 23, 2020. Accessed April 10, 2021. https://thediplomat.com/2020/10/amid-us-criticisms-china-offers-mekong-nations-access-to-crucial-river-data/  

[25] Vathana, Seourn. Thai, Cambodia, Vietnam Ambassadors Urge ASEAN, US support for Mekong Management. Voice of America News Cambodia. March 25, 2021. Accessed April 10, 2021. https://www.voacambodia.com/a/thai-cambodia-vietnam-ambassadors-urge-asean-us-support-for-mekong-management-/5828248.html

[26] Strangio, Sebastian. How Meaningful is the New US-Mekong Partnership?. The Diplomat. September 14, 2020. Accessed April 10, 2021. https://thediplomat.com/2020/09/how-meaningful-is-the-new-us-mekong-partnership/

[27] Vathana, Seourn. Thai, Cambodia, Vietnam Ambassadors Urge ASEAN, US support for Mekong Management. Voice of America News Cambodia. March 25, 2021. Accessed April 10, 2021. https://www.voacambodia.com/a/thai-cambodia-vietnam-ambassadors-urge-asean-us-support-for-mekong-management-/5828248.html 

[28] Nukitrangsan, Kulnaree. Chinese implications on Lancang-Mekong Cooperation (LMC). Institute of Asian Studies, Chulalongkorn University. Accessed April 10, 2021. http://www.ias.chula.ac.th/en/article/chinese-implications-on-lancang-mekong-cooperation-lmc/

References

AFP. The 97km that frustrate China's mastery of the Mekong. Bangkok Post. January 10, 2020. Accessed April 10, 2021. https://www.bangkokpost.com/world/1832839/the-97kms-that-frustrate-chinas-mastery-of-the- mekong

Citowicki, Philip. China’s Control of the Mekong. The Diplomat. May 8, 2020. Accessed April 10, 2021. https://thediplomat.com/2020/05/chinas-control-of-the-mekong/

Eyler, Brian and Weatherby, Courtney. New Evidence: How China Turned off the Tap on the Mekong River. The Stimson Center. April 13, 2020. https://www.stimson.org/2020/new-evidence-how-china-turned-off-the-mekong-tap/

Fawthrop, Tom. Something Is Very Wrong on the Mekong River. The Diplomat. August 26, 2019. Accessed April 8, 2021. https://thediplomat.com/2019/08/something-is-very-wrong-on-the-mekong-river/

Funaiole, Matthew P. and Hart, Brian. An Upswell of Solidarity: China’s Mekong Dams Face Online Backlash. Center For Strategic & International Studies. April 24, 2020. https://www.csis.org/analysis/upswell-solidarity-chinas-mekong-dams-face-online-backlash

Jennings, Ralph. China’s Diversion of Upstream Mekong Flows Seen Drying Up Southeast Asia. Voice of America News. January 28, 2021. Accessed April 8, 2021. https://www.voanews.com/east-asia-pacific/chinas-diversion-upstream-mekong-flows-seen- drying-southeast-asia

Kijewski, Leonie. China’s dams exacerbated extreme drought in lower Mekong: Study. Al Jazeera News. 25 April, 2020. Accessed April 8, 2021.https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/4/25/chinas-dams-exacerbated-extreme-drought-in- lower-mekong-study

Mekong River Commission. Devex. Accessed April 10, 2020. https://www.devex.com/organizations/mekong-river-commission-mrc-44123

Nukitrangsan, Kulnaree. Chinese implications on Lancang-Mekong Cooperation (LMC). Institute of Asian Studies, Chulalongkorn University. Accessed April 10, 2021. http://www.ias.chula.ac.th/en/article/chinese-implications-on-lancang-mekong-cooperation-lmc/

Strangio, Sebastian. Amid US Criticisms, China Offers Mekong Nations Access to Crucial River Data. The Diplomat. October 23, 2020. Accessed April 10, 2021. https://thediplomat.com/2020/10/amid-us-criticisms-china-offers-mekong-nations-access-to- crucial-river-data/

Strangio, Sebastian. How Meaningful is the New US-Mekong Partnership?. The Diplomat. September 14, 2020. Accessed April 10, 2021. https://thediplomat.com/2020/09/how-meaningful-is-the-new-us-mekong-partnership/

Sullivan, Michael. China Reshapes The Vital Mekong River To Power Its Expansion. NPR. October 6, 2018. Accessed April 10, 2021.https://www.npr.org/2018/10/06/639280566/china-reshapes-the-vital-mekong-river-to-power- its-expansion

Tan, Huileng. China could have choked off the Mekong and aggravated a drought, threatening the lifeline of millions in Asia. April 27, 2020. Accessed April 10, 2021.https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/28/china-choked-off-the-mekong-which-worsened-southeast- asia-drought-study.html

Thepgumpanat, Panarat. Thailand scraps China-led project to blast open Mekong River. Reuters. February 5, 2020. Accessed April 10, 2021. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-thailand-china/thailand-scraps-china-led-project-to-blast- open-mekong-river-idUSKBN1ZZ1T6

Wangkiat, Paritta. Sharing the Mekong. Bangkok Post. March 29, 2021. Accessed April 10, 2021. https://www.bangkokpost.com/business/2091291/sharing-the-mekong

Vathana, Seourn. Thai, Cambodia, Vietnam Ambassadors Urge ASEAN, US support for Mekong Management. Voice of America News Cambodia. March 25, 2021. Accessed April 10, 2021. https://www.voacambodia.com/a/thai-cambodia-vietnam-ambassadors-urge-asean-us-support- for-mekong-management-/5828248.html