Geopolitical Forecasting, Power & Security, United States A Roadmap to Implementing Probabilistic Forecasting Methods

June 3, 2022
By Julia Ciocca, Michael C. Horowitz, and Jared Rosen | Perry World House

We live in an increasingly data-driven world, where algorithms drive the stock market and shape inventory for all kinds of goods. However, the U.S. intelligence community (IC) still provides analysis to policymakers in much the same way they did over the last several decades. 

This could be about to change. The National Intelligence Council recently announced that it will once again be piloting a crowdsourced probabilistic geopolitical forecasting platform, after previous attempts to institutionalize this kind of intelligence gathering foundered for bureaucratic reasons. Crowdsourced geopolitical forecasting is a powerful complement to traditional analysis, but just creating a platform is not enough.

The IC will need to make choices about the platform and how it communicates forecasts to both IC leaders and policymakers. To inform these choices, Perry World House has released a new report, 'A Roadmap to Implementing Probabilistic Forecasting Methods,' which draws on interviews with policymakers,  analysts, and other experts from the national security community. It sets out what this new platform could look like and the features that would make it a useful tool for the IC.

Click here to read the report