Democracy In a Year of Elections, France and the UK Hold the Far Right at Bay – For Now

On July 7 French voters upended pollsters’ predictions by denying Marine Le Pen’s far-right populist National Rally a majority in the National Assembly and the Prime Minister’s seat. On July 4 in the UK voters soundly rejected the Conservative party after 14 years in power. And on July 5 in Iran – a non-democratic country where political choices are strictly managed by religious authoritarian leaders – “enough Iranians were willing to shuffle off their cynicism for a day and vote for incremental change—knowing full well that their aspirations for genuine freedom and democracy are, at best, likely to be only partially fulfilled, and at worst, ignored for another cycle,” writes John Ghazvinian, Executive Director of the Middle East Center at the University of Pennsylvania. 

Voters in Europe and the Middle East provided evidence, yet again, that democracies can be nimble and resilient against populist threats; that citizens can hold their governments accountable for poor performance; and that the promise of fundamental democratic rights can still inspire and mobilize. 

But do these results represent a rejection of populist anti-democratic or authoritarian politics?  Probably not.  Le Pen’s party won the most votes and seats in the National Assembly in its history, and even though a pro-democracy coalition of the Left and Center once again banded together to keep the far right out of power, she will likely be a formidable contender in the 2027 Presidential elections.  The UK’s populist Reform party earned more parliamentary seats than ever before, threatening to pull the more mainstream Conservatives closer to their political line.  Iran remains a non-democratic authoritarian state where even a reformist president is hemmed in by hardline religious clerics who control policy decisions.  “We should not be under any illusions,” according to Ghazvinian, that “the reformist victory represents a rousing national mandate for change, or a full-throated endorsement of the system by the population. In fact, the Islamic Republic is less popular today than at any time in its 45-year history.”  

From a global perspective these elections – however dramatic - are only a small subset of democratic activity in 2024.  More than two billion people in over 65 countries have or will vote in 2024, including in the United States. Despite this milestone, however, by many measures democracy globally is in decline. According to some researchers 71% of the world’s population lives in autocracies. Compounding the threat is extreme political polarization; sophisticated authoritarian efforts to discredit democracy and spread disinformation; religious fundamentalism; and erosion of the norms and guardrails that safeguard democracy. 

So far this year authoritarians from Russia to Bangladesh locked-in their rule through elections.  But pro-democratic forces registered gains in places like India and Senegal.  Mexico and South Africa held important elections over the summer, and Venezuela is scheduled to hold a critical presidential election in July 2024 that could determine its democratic future for years.  And populism is on the ballot when the United States goes to the polls in November. 

“The UK and French elections are useful for thinking through both the possibilities and limits of democracy in divided societies that are engaged with polarizing cultural wars,” says Sarah Banet-Weiser, Walter H. Annenberg Dean of the Annenberg School for Communication at the University of Pennsylvania.  “It is also more critical than ever that we attend to the media’s role in democratic elections.  Misinformation, partisanship, and fake news abound across multiple media platforms, and news plays a key role in not only motivating people to vote, but who to vote for.  Media, and the free flow of information, have always been key to the formation of democracies—but they play an equally central role in undermining them.”