Europe, Russia , United States, Power & Security, International Trade & Finance The Putinomics Playbook Won't Work Forever

Chris Miller is assistant professor at The Fletcher School and Jeane Kirkpatrick Visiting Fellow at the American Enterprise Institute. This article is a product of a workshop on “The Global Order after Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine,” hosted by the University of Pennsylvania’s Perry World House on April 14, 2022.

On March 27, President Joe Biden claimed that U.S. sanctions had reduced Russia’s currency to “rubble.” Yet in the past few weeks, the currency has rebounded, while the country shows no outward signs of crisis. So what impact are sanctions having?

Plenty of questions remain in the short term. But the long-term consequences of the sanctions are clear and severe. Russian industry now faces difficulties in acquiring crucial tools and components. The future of entire sectors of the Russian economy, from aviation to autos, is in doubt. Russia’s already weak tech sector is now cut off from accessing advanced software and microelectronics. The Russian government has successfully managed the immediate financial shock of the sanctions. But its playbook will be of little relevance in addressing the industrial and technological restrictions that will ultimately have a compounding and devastating impact over time.

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